环球微资讯！欧佩克减产未能提振油价 但下半年石油市场将趋紧

原油价格已经连续四周下跌

对经济衰退的担忧继续打压石油市场的情绪

许多分析师仍然认为，今年下半年石油市场将会趋紧

(资料图片)

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年5月15日报道，由于对经济的担忧压倒了对需求的预期，原油价格已经连续四周下跌，抹去了石油输出国组织(欧佩克/OPEC)最近宣布减产后取得的所有涨幅。

当欧佩克宣布减产时，几乎所有设有大宗商品部门的银行都匆忙更新了它们的原油价格预测，预计原油价格会比以前涨得更高。摩根士丹利是一个罕见的例外：它下调了对原油价格的预测。

摩根士丹利首席大宗商品策略师马丁·拉特斯当时表示：“欧佩克可能需要这样做才能保持他们在全球市场上所占份额不变。”他补充说，欧佩克的减产决定“揭示了一些东西，它发出了一个信号，表明我们在石油市场的位置。老实说，当需求激增时，欧佩克就不需要减产了”。

在很大程度上，拉特斯的此番说法似乎是对的。只不过问题不在于需求本身。推动原油价格下跌一直是对需求恶化的普遍预期。

事实上，在过去4周中，每日更新的油价新闻都在不断重复同样的论调：“两大经济体经济数据疲弱、对美国进一步加息的担忧、对经济衰退的担忧——这在某些行业已经成为事实，尤其是货运行业。”

显然，这些期望有着良好的基础。然而，关于石油需求的问题是，美国或其他发达国家在今年剩余时间和未来几年都不会有额外的石油需求。发展中国家将看到石油需求的增长，并有可能推高油价。

荷兰国际集团(ING)在最近的一份石油市场更新报告中表示，尽管目前原油价格仍处于低迷状态，但今年下半年情况很可能会发生变化，石油供应短缺迫在眉睫。

荷兰国际集团表示，这一预测的基础是欧佩克+产量下降，经合组织以外的需求增加，以及美国产量增长低于预期。更重要的是，欧佩克+总是有可能再次减产，这增加了油价的上涨潜力。

这家荷兰金融服务巨头并不是唯一预计今年晚些时候油价会上涨的公司。花旗银行大宗商品主管埃德·莫尔斯最近在接受CNBC采访时表示，“原油价格可能已经触底反弹，在人口稠密得多的北半球，我们正进入需求旺季。”

“欧佩克+减产和需求反弹可能会抵消其他地区需求放缓的影响…… 因此，我们预计原油价格将很快触底反弹。”澳大利亚联邦银行在5月初发布的一份报告中如是表示。

高盛银行是另一家对油价近期走势持乐观态度的银行。在3月初欧佩克+意外宣布减产前几周发布的一份报告中，高盛银行表示，如果欧佩克+每天保持200万桶原油减产协议，布伦特原油价格到今年年底每桶可能达到100美元。

同样，这是在欧佩克+宣布进一步减产暂时提振油价之前。随着时间的推移，这很可能会再次提振油价。这只需要大国的经济走向更加乐观。

当然，所有这些都只是基于历史数据和一些常识的预测。然而，市场的问题在于，它们并不总是遵循常识，而是容易受到微小的影响。

过去4周就是证据，石油交易商基本上忽略了任何基本面因素，专注于银行所称的宏观形势。他们忽略了有关炼油产能和石油进口的数据，转而关注最新的PMI数据。他们忽略了有关美国生产趋势的数据，转而关注4月CPI数据，该数据显示通胀仍是一个重大问题。

所有这些都是完全可以理解的：所谓的宏观形势对石油需求有着巨大的影响，而在高通胀和利率上升的时期，石油需求往往会下降。然而，在关注宏观形势的同时，人们忘记了一件事：尽管石油名声不好，但它仍是经济学家所说的一种非弹性商品。

这意味着，无论商品价格如何，对它的需求总是强劲的。而这反过来意味着，现在可能是交易商更多关注供应前景的时候了。因为当供应收紧时，价格就会上涨——需求将无处可去，即使在饱受通胀困扰的美国也是如此。

更重要的是，正如荷兰国际集团在其石油市场更新报告中指出的那样，欧佩克+意识到它可以在原油产量控制方面发挥作用。如果价格跌得太低，没有什么能阻止欧佩克+再次减产。毕竟，欧佩克+能失去多少市场份额呢?

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

OPEC Cut Failed To Lift Oil Prices, But The Year Isn’t Over Yet

· Oil prices have seen a 4-week losing streak.

· Recession fears continue to weigh on sentiment in oil markets.

· Many analysts continue to see a tighter oil market in the second half of 2023.

Crude oil prices have been on a losing streak for four consecutive weeks now, erasing all the gains they booked after OPEC’s latest supply cut announcement as economic fears take precedence over demand expectations.

When the cartel announced the cuts, almost every bank with a commodities department rushed to update their price forecasts, expecting prices to jump even higher than before. Morgan Stanley was a rare exception: it revised its price forecast for oil downwards.

“OPEC probably needs to do this to stand still,” Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at the investment bank, said at the time, adding that the OPEC+ decision “reveals something, it gives a signal of where we are in the oil market. And look, let’s be honest about this, when demand is roaring…then OPEC doesn’t need to cut.”

He seems to have been right, for the most part. Only it’s not demand itself that was the problem. It has been the popular expectation of worsening demand that has been driving the price decline.

Indeed, the daily media updates on oil prices have, in the past four weeks, repeated the same refrain over and over again: weak the economic data of the two countries , fears of more interest rate hikes in the U.S., fears of a recession, which is already a fact in certain industries, notably freight transport.

Clearly, these expectations have had a sound basis. The thing about oil demand, however, is that the U.S., or the rest of the developed world, is not where additional oil demand will be coming from in the rest of the year and future years. It’s the developing world that will see growth in oil demand with the potential to drive prices higher.

Dutch ING said in a recent oil market update that while oil prices remain depressed for now, things could very well change in the second part of the year, with a deficit looming on the horizon.

The basis for this forecast is a combination of lower OPEC+ output, higher demand outside the OECD, and a smaller-than-expected growth in U.S. output, according to ING. What’s more, there is always the possibility that OPEC+ will cut output again, adding to oil’s upside potential.

The Dutch financial services major is not the only one expecting higher prices later this year. Citi’s commodities head Ed Morse recently told CNBC that oil prices may have bottomed out, and we’re entering peak demand season in the much more populated northern hemisphere.

“OPEC+ output cuts and a rebound in demand will likely offset slower demand elsewhere ... Therefore, we expect prices to bottom out soon,” the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note from early May.

Goldman is another bank that’s optimistic about the immediate future of oil prices. In a note from early March—weeks before the surprise OPEC+ cut announcement, the bank said Brent could reach $100 by the end of the year if OPEC keeps its 2-million-barrel output cut agreement in place.

Again, that was before the OPEC+ additional cut announcement that temporarily boosted prices. And it might well boost them once again as the year progresses. All it would take would be a more optimistic economic update from the economics.

Of course, all these are only projections based on historical data and some common sense. The thing about markets, however, is that they do not always obey common sense but tend to get swayed on a dime.

The past four weeks are evidence of that, with oil traders largely ignoring any fundamentals to focus on what banks call the macro picture. They have ignored data about refinery throughputs and oil imports to focus on the latest PMI, which has shown a contraction in the country’s growth pace. They have ignored data about U.S. production trends to focus on the April CPI reading, which showed inflation remains a substantial problem.

All this is perfectly understandable: the so-called macro picture has a huge bearing on oil demand, which tends to decline in times of high inflation and rising interest rates. The thing that gets forgotten, however, while watching that macro picture is that oil, for all its bad rap, is what economists call an inelastic commodity.

This means that whatever the price for the commodity, there will always be strong demand for it. And this, in turn, means that it might be time for traders to focus a bit more on the supply outlook. Because when supply tightens, prices will rise—demand will be going nowhere, even in inflation-stricken U.S.

What’s more, as ING noted in its oil market update, OPEC+ is aware of the power it can wield in output control. There is nothing to prevent it from doing it again should prices fall too low for its liking. After all, how much market share can it lose?